The America freight industry recently logged its second consecutive monthly gain, according to the American Trucking Association. The index for seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage rose 2.1% in July and again the same amount in August.

Before you pop the champagne, that’s a rise only if you measure it against this year’s June tonnage. If you compare August tonnage to the same a year ago, it’s a drop of 7.5%. What that means is that while the freight picture is better than it was at the start of summer, it’s still a lot worse than a year ago.… Well, doh.

So if the economy is trending up, how come trucking doesn’t show it? In the past, freight has always been a reliable bellwether. Bob Costello, Chief Economist for the American Trucking Association, explains that in 2008, sales across the supply chain plummeted so rapidly that in a few months inventories had accumulated to heights not seen since 2001. In other words, compared to most downturns, there’s more stuff in reseller warehouses. It’s going to take longer to work through the excess.

Said Costello in a recent statement, “These gains in tonnage represent a growing economy and less of an overhang in inventories.” Though optimistic that the worst is over, Costello cautions that “most economic indicators, including industrial output and household spending, suggest freight tonnage will exhibit moderate, and probably inconsistent, growth in the months ahead.”

Furthermore, Costello doesn’t expect to see the same magnitude of increases as July and August. In other words, 2.1% again is too much to hope for.

What? You were expecting something more optimistic? Listen, they don’t call economics “the dismal science” because it’s full of smiley faces. Leave the cork in the champagne, but go ahead and treat yourself to a six-pack. You’ve got money coming in. Probably.

This story was drawn from articles in the South Florida Business Journal and the Omaha World Herald