Invent your own crystal ball for the future
By Timothy Brady

As the summer of 2010 begins, the trucking industry is seeing a steady growth in tonnage over the past five months. But, not all trucking companies and truckers are ready to celebrate the end of their recession. The ones with improving bottom lines are studying the trends of their shippers and shippers’ customers. Many carriers have positioned themselves to take advantage of the fact that inventories for many manufacturers have been depleted: warehouses and store shelves are sparse with product to sell or are out right empty. The carriers who have studied their markets and anticipated the need for more products are the ones who were prepared for this upswing. But the question remains-Is this economic improvement sustainable? No one can predict the future, but you can study the trends of the market you serve.                             

Mistakes are the greatest source of knowledge, and hindsight can be a great vision into the future. The problem is many truckers have become complacent, knowing the past five months had continuing upward trends in tonnage and available loads. But what these same truckers fail to do is watch what’s happening on the shipping and manufacturing sides of the tonnage they haul.

Trucking is like hunting; even though you may have walked this particular acreage hundreds of times, and think you know every square inch, dynamics change. Less food or water for the game in a certain area will move them to a totally different area. A predator moves in, some environmental effect changes the weather in the area; any of these can change the habits of your quarry. By scouting the land on a continuing basis, you’ll keep apprised of changes and able to adjust your strategies accordingly. The same thing can happen in trucking.

Truckers tend to be creatures of habit. When tonnage is rolling along, with no major problems in locating the next load, they become content with the status quo. But to keep from getting blind-sided with a sudden drop in tonnage, you must always be scouting the segment your loads are coming from. Is there a labor strike looming? What are your shipping customers’ plans for the next few months? What are the local economy trends for your pick-up and delivery locations? Is there a shift in where and how the products you haul are being purchased? Is there a national crisis looming? Who is it going to affect? Knowing the answers to these questions and others like them will help you keep your ear to the ground and anticipate what’s on the other side of the next hill.

Once you can see the dynamics of change, you can plot a strategy to deal with the situation. Remember, trucking is a lot like the weather, it’s going to change. If you’re not prepared, you’ll get caught without the correct gear to cope with it. So just like you check the weather on a daily basis, look forward at the ten day forecast, and make adjustments to your schedule, your route, or prepare with the right equipment; you need to watch the economic forecast, so you are equipped for the inevitable changes. Trucking is like any other business, it’s cyclical. There’re always going to be good times and bad times, but the more you keep an eye on the economics of what you haul, the better prepared you’ll be when loads head south. Just like when doing a blind-side back, you’ve got to stop; get out, and survey the landscape to be sure you’re not going to back over something. 

Good loads and good roads everyone.

Timothy Brady © 2010
www.timothybrady.com 
731.749.8567